2026 Private Capital Outlook

[Monty2026: The 2026 Capital Markets & Investment Landscape] Michelle Gonzalez (Corporate VP & Global Head, M12), Jai Das (Co-Founder & President, Sapphire Ventures), and Matt McIlwain (Managing Director, Madrona Venture Group) discuss the private capital landscape with moderator Ben Bergman (Senior Correspondent, Business Insider). McIlwain warns of a tension between disruption speed and durability, while Das focuses on infrastructure "picks and shovels" investments as less exposed to model displacement. Gonzalez highlights a striking reversal: 90% of subscription AI revenue went to OpenAI in February 2025; a year later, 70% was going to Anthropic. McIlwain discloses that Madrona passed on OpenAI's $25 billion round in 2022, before ChatGPT launched. The panel also compares AI-native company economics with the SaaS benchmark and debates the likely order of anticipated SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs.