Sam and Bret unpack a volatile earnings and macro week, focusing on investor concerns about Alphabet’s search business and the muted reaction to Microsoft’s strong results. They also discuss the Fed’s rate decision, other economic and political headlines, and practical lessons about patience around earnings and long-term investing.

Talking Points 👇

🔹 Sam and Bret contrast concerns about Alphabet’s search-ad business with its growing AI search use and strong cloud business.
🔹 Bret describes Alphabet’s stock history: an AI-fear selloff near $85-$90 followed by a rally to around $400, while Sam flags the 200-week moving average near $200 as a potential chart level.
🔹 The hosts discuss search revenue growth of about 12% and the challenge of adapting a core business amid rapid AI changes and high investor expectations.
🔹 They note Microsoft beat across key measures, including cloud revenue and guidance, yet reversed from an after-hours gain to trade lower, despite positive free cash flow and disciplined capital spending.
🔹 Sam advises investors to let the market digest earnings before acting, rather than chasing the initial move or speculating ahead of reports.
🔹 Bret says Microsoft had already climbed roughly 50% from its June low, providing context for its post-earnings pullback.
🔹 They discuss rotation among Mag Seven stocks and the increasingly unforgiving response to missed expectations or cautious guidance.
🔹 The Fed held rates as expected; Sam and Bret also touch on PCE inflation, the ECB leadership news, the UK budget, and political-event uncertainty.

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Tad & Drex Full Show February 17, 2021

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