GM 78: The Market Risk Nobody’s Watching ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan

Today, we take you into the complexities of the current financial landscape, emphasizing the crucial theme of positioning in an environment marked by rising interest rates and shifting market dynamics. We explore how recent structured product issuance is significantly impacting market structure, particularly in the U.S., where the volume of callable bonds and equity-linked products has surged. They highlight the risks associated with reliance on historical correlations, which may not hold in times of market stress, and the implications for investors navigating these turbulent waters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a significant monetary regime shift, akin to what was seen in the late '90s, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic economic policies. You will gain valuable insights into how to recognize and adapt to these evolving risks, to become well prepared for the challenges ahead. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter . Follow David on LinkedIn. Read David's report here. Episode TimeStamps: 01:34 - A quick catch up since last conversation 02:13 - Dredge's key takeaways from 2024 08:58 - When did things really start to move for Dredge? 15:41 - Cem's analysis of the recent global macro environment 22:51 - What has driven the S&P volatility? 24:44 - Positioning is all that matters 29:31 - "Correlation is a bitch" 33:31 - Portfolio Manager in legal trouble for following an ESG strategy 37:57 - The difference between credit and vol investors 42:07 - The good outcome is a recession 45:36 - All the things that you are not worried about is driving your performance 48:49 - The state of interest rates and FX trading 57:24 - Is the Fed losing its grip on the economy? 01:03:46 - The outlook of markets - where are we heading? 01:09:18 - Risk is on your balance sheet, not in the future 01:16:14 - Dredge's perspective on structural products issuance 01:27:22 - The recession might come sooner than we think Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer